Well, the way I figure, if we all aim for the middle at 50, the target ends up around 33. But since we're all thinking the same thing, the number is likely to drift lower as people try to get ahead of the curve. I'll be watching to see how we actually play before I put too much stock in any one strategy.

Frank makes a good point about the drift. I figure we're all thinking about the same thing, so it'll come down to feel and what the group does. I'm going to play this one close and see where everyone lands—no point trying to outsmart people when we're all guessing anyway.